Cost and schedule contingency that stands up to the board, the audit and time.
Archai Risk turns your project's documents, budget and schedule into attested risks, planned responses and integrated cost and schedule simulation. Every number has a traceable origin. None enters the calculation without a person's approval.
Method applied at S11D, US$ 4.5 bn of CAPEX delivered two months ahead of schedule · Created by the Academic Director of AACE Brasil · In production in 4 languages
- Human attestation
- Full traceability
- Cost and schedule P80
- Single source of truth
The contingency you can't defend costs more than the one you approved.
Inherited percentage
Contingency was set at "10% of historicals". At the gate, no one can say where the number comes from — or why it isn't 7% or 15%.
Disconnected matrix
The qualitative risk matrix lives in one spreadsheet; the budget, in another; the schedule, in a third system. Nothing talks to anything else, and the simulation — when there is one — is redone by hand at every revision.
Decisions without memory
The decision to proceed was made in a meeting. Two years later, in the claim or the arbitration, there is no record of assumptions, alternatives considered or who approved what.
The cost of an indefensible contingency doesn't show up in the spreadsheet. It shows up at the gate, in the claim and in the arbitration.
A method tested on megaprojects before it became software.
Developed by GP Líder Ltda. · In production in Portuguese, English, Spanish and French
Three steps. One evidence trail from document to number, with provenance.
At every step, specialized agents do the heavy lifting. At every step, a person decides.
Load
Project documents, budget and schedule. Reading agents segment, classify and connect the context in a graph.
Agents read · you confirm the scope
Attest
Identification and analysis agents propose risks, responses and impact ranges. Your team approves, adjusts or rejects each item. Nothing enters the calculation without human attestation.
Agents propose · you attest
Decide
Integrated cost and duration simulation, P80 by package and by project, defensible contingency and an origin trail for every number — ready for the gate, the audit or the claim.
Agents calculate · you decide
From the document that comes in to the risk you track.
The 11 stations of Archai Risk, in the order your project goes through them.
- Foundations
- 1DocumentsProject documents come in and become context in the graph.
- 2Context & Value ChainPurpose, stakeholders and assumptions, connected.
- Risks
- 3Risk ChainAgents propose risks, causes and responses; your team attests.
- Quantification
- 4Base / BudgetThe budget is checked side by side with the original and attested.
- 5LinksEach risk is linked to the budget lines it threatens.
- 6QuantificationThree-point probability and impact, with a calculation record.
- 7PanoramaThe whole portfolio in the risk breakdown structure: inherent × residual.
- 8Cost SimulationAuditable Monte Carlo: cost contingency at P80.
- 9Schedule SimulationRisks on schedule activities: schedule contingency at P80.
- 10ReportsRisk register, executive report and simulation report.
- Tracking
- 11Live trackingField signals become alerts; a person attests each one.
↺ What tracking detects flows back into the risk chain, with human attestation: contingency follows the project instead of stopping at the gate.
Twelve steps. One environment. No spreadsheet in between.
Context, stakeholders, first principles and purpose. Systemic risks, identification, four-causes analysis and response planning. Quantitative cost and schedule analysis, each with built-in Monte Carlo simulation, and integrated cost and schedule analysis. Risk tracking during project execution and construction.
Everything integrated in a single environment, end to end. AI agents do the heavy lifting at every step, and a person attests every result. Nothing is exported, recalculated in another tool and imported back.
- Context
- Stakeholders
- First principles
- Purpose
- Systemic risks
- Identification
- Four-causes analysis
- Response planning
- Cost · Monte Carlo
- Schedule · Monte Carlo
- Integrated cost + schedule
- Live tracking
- Foundations
- Risks
- Quantification
- Tracking
What changes when contingency has an origin.
| Today (spreadsheet / generic simulator) | With Archai Risk |
|---|---|
| Contingency by historical percentage | Contingency calculated on the actual budget, with P80 |
| Cost and schedule simulated separately | Integrated cost and duration simulation |
| Risks enter the calculation without formal review | Mandatory human attestation before any calculation |
| Results with no auditable origin | Traceable graph: document → risk → response → number |
| Documents, spreadsheets and versions scattered around | Single source of truth: one context graph per project |
| Every revision is redone by hand | A revision recalculates the entire chain, with history |
| Knowledge leaves with whoever leaves the project | Institutional memory preserved across projects |
It's not another Monte Carlo tool. It's the trail that explains why the simulation result is what it is.
Agents that propose. A graph that remembers. People who decide.
The differentiators above don't come from a generic AI with a well-written prompt. They come from two engineering choices.
14 specialized agents, 12 with direct interaction
Each agent does one thing well: read a document, identify a risk, propose a response, estimate a range, simulate, explain. None of them decides. The contextual Hermes explains, on every screen, the next step and why — so the project team can operate without depending on an AI specialist.
Graph Engineering: a single source of truth
Documents, evidence, assumptions, risks, responses, simulations and decisions are nodes linked in a project context graph, on top of a knowledge graph that persists across projects. There is no spreadsheet copy and no parallel version: what the gate sees is what the graph contains. Ask "where did this P80 come from?" and the answer is a path, not an opinion.
- Single Source of Truth
- Provenance of every number
- Memory across projects
- Neo4j, optional on-premise
And when risk becomes a gate decision?
Archai Pro records each decision as a governed object: context, purpose, alternatives considered, risks, evidence and who approved. The Context → Purpose → Signals → Verdict chain goes through human approval at every stage and ends in a sealed record in the same graph — the one you present two years later without having to reconstruct the story.
- Decision Ledger
- Executive, specialist or collegiate perspective
- Integrated with Archai Risk
What project leaders ask before booking.
I already do this in a spreadsheet or a Monte Carlo simulator.
Those tools simulate; Archai Risk traces. Every risk carries its source document, who attested it and which response was planned — exactly what you present at the gate, in the claim and in the audit.
The AI will make up risks.
No risk enters the calculation without human attestation. The agents propose; your team approves, adjusts or rejects. The system records the user who decided.
I don't have a dedicated risk team.
The flow is guided in three steps and the contextual Hermes explains the next action on every screen. In the pilot, deployment is supported by GP Líder.
What language is the diagnosis meeting in?
Portuguese or English, your choice. The time is shown in your time zone and confirmed in Brasília time (GMT-3); the meeting takes place on Google Meet, with an invitation on your calendar.
What languages is the product available in?
Portuguese, English, Spanish and French — in production.
How long until the first result?
It depends on the team's commitment. An experienced analyst with the information at hand can, starting from scratch, run the entire value and risk chain and the cost and schedule quantification stations in just 1 day.
Who is behind the method.
Archai (ἀρχαί) is the word Aristotle used for first principles: the origins from which everything else derives. The method starts from them, not from an inherited percentage.
Guilherme Pereira Lima, MSc, PMI-PMP, PMI-PMOCP. Civil engineer with over 30 years in planning, controls, contracts and risk for megaprojects and capital programs in mining, infrastructure, oil & gas and industry. He was Planning and Controls manager at S11D (Vale), a US$ 4.5 bn project delivered two months ahead of schedule. Academic Director of AACE Brasil and guest expert on engagements with McKinsey and EY. He has taught at Fundação Dom Cabral, FGV and PUC Minas. Author of six books, including First Principles Project Risk Management and Gestão de Riscos pelos Primeiros Princípios.
Find out in 30 minutes how much of your contingency is defensible.
What you get
- A diagnosis of your project or portfolio, with the questions the gate will ask
- An Archai Risk demo with sample data — or with yours, if you prefer
- A 3-week pilot proposal, when it makes sense for both sides
You pick the time on the spot, in your time zone. The invitation arrives on your calendar with the Google Meet link. Meeting in Portuguese or English.
- 1 · Your details
- 2 · Time
- 3 · Confirmed
Times from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. Brasília time, on business days, converted to your time zone. Crossed-out times are already taken. 30-min meeting on Google Meet.
In the meantime:
Need to cancel or reschedule?